Pellet prices don’t move in a straight line, and anyone promising a precise number for “what pellets will cost this December” is guessing more confidently than the data actually supports. What we can do is look at where prices stand now, what’s actually driving them, and the pattern that repeats reliably enough to plan around — which matters more for your budget than a specific forecast number would anyway.
Where Prices Stand in 2026
US residential pellet pricing currently runs in the range covered in our buying guide — roughly $250 to $380 per ton depending on region, quality grade, and whether you’re buying bagged or bulk, with a commonly cited national average around $280 per ton. Globally, wood pellet export pricing has come down from the sharp peaks of the 2022 energy crisis — the average global export price fell about 6.8% in 2024 compared to the prior year, described by market analysts as a “correction” after a period of extreme volatility rather than a sign of a permanently cheaper market.
The Longer-Term Trend
Zooming out, global wood pellet export prices rose at an average annual rate of roughly 1.4% per year between 2012 and 2024 — a gradual upward drift, not a dramatic one, reflecting rising quality standards, sustainability compliance costs, and underlying raw material costs over time. This is a useful reference point against the more dramatic short-term swings: the 2022 energy crisis spike was an outlier event, not the new normal, and the 2024 correction brought prices back toward that longer-term trendline rather than to some artificially low baseline.
What’s Driving Prices Right Now
Competition With Other Heating Fuels
Pellet demand in North America is closely tied to how pellets compare in cost to propane and heating oil (see our pellet vs. oil boiler comparison for the underlying math) — when those fossil fuel prices rise, pellet demand tends to strengthen as more households look for an alternative, which can put upward pressure on pellet prices in turn.
Expanding US Production Capacity
Production hubs in the Southeast and Pacific Northwest continue to expand, and emerging production in the Midwest and South is adding new domestic supply. More production capacity generally supports price stability (or moderation) over time, though the effect isn’t immediate — new capacity takes time to come online and reach full output.
Export Demand
US pellet producers, particularly larger industrial operations, also serve export markets (notably Europe, which imports a substantial volume of wood pellets for its own renewable energy commitments). Strong export demand can pull supply away from the domestic residential market at the margins, though this affects industrial-grade pellet supply chains more directly than the residential/PFI Premium market most home stove owners buy from.
Regional Supply and Logistics
As covered in our buying guide, regional differences of 15–25% between areas like the Southeast and Northeast are common, driven by proximity to production and trucking/logistics costs rather than any national pricing trend — your local price movement can differ meaningfully from a national average.
The One Pattern You Can Actually Plan Around: Seasonality
Regardless of the longer-term trend in any given year, the seasonal pattern is highly reliable: prices consistently rise from December through February as demand peaks and buyers who didn’t plan ahead compete for available inventory, and they’re typically softer during the spring and summer shoulder seasons as suppliers clear inventory ahead of the next production cycle. This is exactly why “spring buy” programs (see our buying guide) exist and why locking in your season’s supply early is one of the few genuinely reliable ways to control your cost, regardless of what the broader market does that year.
What This Means for Your 2026–2027 Heating Season
Rather than trying to predict an exact price point, plan around the factors that are actually knowable:
- Buy early if you can. The spring/summer discount pattern is far more predictable than any year-over-year price forecast.
- Watch competing fuel prices in your area. If heating oil or propane prices are climbing locally, expect stronger pellet demand (and potentially firmer pellet pricing) to follow.
- Check regional production news. New pellet mill capacity coming online in your region is a genuine, if gradual, downward pressure on local pricing over time.
- Don’t over-index on a single year’s headline number. The 2022 spike and 2024 correction show how much short-term volatility can happen around a much steadier long-term trend — plan your budget around a reasonable range, not a single confident figure.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will pellet prices keep falling after the 2024 correction? It’s not a safe assumption either way — the 2024 decline reflected a correction from an unusual energy-crisis-driven spike, not necessarily the start of a sustained downward trend. The underlying long-term pattern has been a gradual upward drift over the past decade.
Is it better to lock in a price early, or wait and see if prices drop? For most buyers, locking in during a spring/summer promotion is the more reliable strategy — the seasonal price pattern (higher in winter, lower in shoulder seasons) is far more consistent than trying to time a broader market dip.
How much does the price of heating oil or propane actually affect pellet prices? Meaningfully, at least on the demand side — pellets compete directly with these fuels for cost-conscious buyers, so when oil or propane gets more expensive, pellet demand (and often pricing) tends to firm up as more households switch or add pellet heating.
Should I worry about pellet shortages the way there sometimes are with other fuels? Expanding US production capacity across multiple regions provides a reasonable buffer against severe shortages, though regional or short-term tightness during unusually high demand (a particularly cold, prolonged winter) isn’t impossible — another reason buying ahead of peak season is a sound strategy regardless of the broader price trend.
Continue reading: Where to Buy Bulk Pellets Cheaper (by US Region)